Sensex crossed 26000 mark yesterday for the first time in its history with Nifty following it on the same pattern. Today morning the session started on an encouraging note and continued its momentum for first few hours but collapsed reaching -517.97 Sensex and -163.95 Nifty by the time it closed for the day. It was a record high of 26,123.55 points for the Sensex on Monday on expectations of a sound budget proposal of the Railways today after noon as a result of which the stocks of the companies related to railway sector continued surging much upward. The proposed measures like FDI in railways, increasing the number of trains and introduction of bullet trains were the attractive features for the traders and their enthusiasm was fully manifest on their deals on Monday but today it was totally a u-turn for the market and there was a sharp downfall early in the afternoon even before the rail budget was scheduled to be placed. If it was for the better prospects in stocks relating railway related shares the spree should have been continued equally today but it was not. This has made the scenario for the next few days more suspenseful coupled with general union budget due to be placed on 10th of this month.
Tuesday, 8 July 2014
Friday, 4 July 2014
Share market–false predictions:
Saturday, 28 June 2014
Share market–investing in uncertain times:
Indian share market closed at the end of its last week at Sensex 25,099.92 and Nifty 7,508.80 respectively registering plus factor at 0.15% and 0.21%, nothing like an encouraging performance. Overall the market ran on a drudgery note with element of volatility hovering all around and both bulls and bears looked to be in a posture of compromise. Market remained uncertain throughout the session. Experts opine that no investment is advisable in such a limping stage of the market, an advice not necessarily to be followed by the investors. In fact what is desirable is to go by the performance of the individual shares and not the market as a whole in its totality. Studying each share in its total depth with more emphasis on its performance in the past has to be the primary basis with the company’s balance sheet being treated as a primary factor without any chasing of the yellow scripts. Soaring prices aside, an investor has to keep an eye on developmental plans envisaged by the government with an amount of seriousness. These are some of the factors worth being adhered to by the investors; if yes, it is high time to go ahead with an investment to the extent one can afford.
Friday, 20 June 2014
Share market–clash between bulls and bears=volatility:
Volatility is always a worse type of drudgery in any share market and is cumbersomely boring with distaste. Erupt as it does as a result of neck to neck fight between the bull and the bear it causes more of fatigue with stagnation to the traders coupled with bouts of pluses and minuses with quick but lasting intermissions to a point of an extreme drudgery. It hardly matters whether they fight face to face or back to back as result in both the positions is the same. Extremes in the share market need not be confused with volatility as they are just quite different –in fact extremes of pluses and minuses provide better scope of business to the traders and that stage is a hay hour for them to cash the gaps as against volatility that stagnates the transactions. This phenomenon was more visible in the market for the last few days with unpredictable fluctuations at a slow pace both upward and downward.*
*This write-up meets the queries on volatility raised by some of the readers.
Saturday, 14 June 2014
Share market–blowing hot and cold:
Most usual a characteristic of share market as it is it is moving hot and cold with spurs of volatility in between followed and preceded by extremes. Yesterday the market closed at 348.04 Sensex and 107.80 Nifty. Going by what the experts are opining, the market is likely to perform on a positive note on Monday the 16th June. Scarce monsoon as predicted by weather specialists this year is supposed to act as a deterrent but keeping in view the overall performance of agriculture sector they are still optimistic about irrigation oriented shares and are recommending buying shares like JISLJALEQS for a better yield. The serious note exhibited by the Government of India on inadequate rains is a great source of optimism for the investors. Every thing, however, in the context of the stock market is to be viewed on a minute to minute basis in conjunction with the factor that fluctuations at no stage can be ruled out.
Friday, 6 June 2014
A share market steadily prone to higher goals:
Many a stock market pundits were divided on its growth prospects even after Modi impact on it was visibly clear with number of them opining that it might take a longer time for the market to pick up the much wanted speed to fulfil the expectations of the traders. Quite visible on the surface as it is now, the market is in its full gear in quite a settled manner set for an acceleration. Sensex and Nifty both closing at 376.95 and 109.30 points after already crossing the land mark of 25,000 as at the close of business today, there are enough of indications for a positive move. The trend of the market is well marked for its characteristic of moving quite steadily sans unbridled fluctuations which factor is denotative of a sound stability leaving bumper scope for a well organised trading with safe investments. Things remaining the same as they are obtaining now for which the chances are bright enough, there are hey days ahead for those who believe and practice healthy trading. Cares and cautions, however, are always necessary for the dealers in share market howsoever best it looks to have been settled.
Thursday, 29 May 2014
Is it that Modi impact has disappeared from the share market?
After struggling much between marginal plus and minus yesterday the Indian share market closed at Nifty 11.65 and Sensex 6.58 points. Overall it was an awkward volatile movement without consistently settling any where. Right from the days Narendra Modi’s election campaign gained a momentum there was a deep impact of it on the stock market and it continued moving very much in a well settled manner without undue fluctuations but the trend reversed after Modi was declared elected as the Prime Minister of India. The trend was at its worst when he was sworn in along with his ministerial team. To some extent it could be attributed to a usual sort of imbalance in buying and selling of shares disproportionately but it looks surprising why the market failed to settle some where continuously for days together. It may well lead to the conclusion that Modi’s impact on the market dwindled badly for the reasons not quite explicit. If profit booking at a large scale was the reason it was not to last for days together say beyond a day or two. Possibly it was a chance for the share market that coincided with Modi’s upper hand in elections and not any impact of his as such.
Tuesday, 27 May 2014
What is it that determines stock market trends?
Stock market is well known for its tendency to fluctuate abnormally the main reason of which is the factor of ‘self fulfilling’. I was reading Swaminathan S.Anklesaria Aiyer’s column in Times of India the other day where he elaborated the way the cycle of ‘self fulfilling’ acts. To quote him, it runs like this:
“If enough people think land and stock prices are going to rise and all of them start buying, the price of land stock will indeed shoot up. If all businessmen fear a recession and stop investing, that itself will cause a recession”.
Exactly this very cycle is called ‘self fulfilling’ and is in many ways responsible for large scale fluctuations not only in the stock market alone but equally the other markets where the theory of demand and supply plays a vital role. Now that the new government in India led by Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister is fully in the saddle and investors in the share market are jubilant with the thought that the index will continue rising much beyond where it stands on date tempting them to indulge in large scale buying but this very action definitely has the tendency to go in the reverse direction having a likelihood of recession taking place with a deep fall in the market as a whole. Better it is for the investors to keep this factor in their mind before trading.
Wednesday, 21 May 2014
Share market sans volatility or over fluctuations:
Fluctuations in any share market all over the world are the basic characteristic of it but when they go hyper there is a crash in the market constraining the traders to go berserk which in turn drags it to volatility for want of requisite transactions in the needed direction. It is after a long time that the market is behaving in a normal manner, of course as Modi impact, where it has neither over fluctuations nor is subjected to volatility –changes both upward and downward are normally in a predictable range restoring the much required normalcy with transactional performance being smooth and boundary bound. A trend like this speaks of stability in the deals which traders find quite feasible. The rupee dollar ratio which constantly dwindled downward earlier for a long time before it somewhat settled at 62-63 rupee ratio as against dollar is now in the range of 58-59 with a tilt to touch 57. Restrained fluctuations with a controlled volatility coupled with a normalised rupee-dollar ratio are all the indications of a well settled market movement getting followed by a sound stability. All taken together, the market scenario is all set to a sound proposition bestowing avenues to the traders for better transactional deals well settled and well meant. Thanks to Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister designate of the country, for restoring the much needed stability to the stock market.
Sunday, 11 May 2014
Share market–most suspenseful days ahead:
Monday, 5 May 2014
What happened to Modi wave in share market:
The impact of Modi wave was quite manifest in the share market for some time and it appeared on the surface that necessary plus trend may continue with a considerable amount of stability but it was not so. It can’t be said that the trend was reversed but certainly it started dwindling at certain stage. Share market is after all not subordinated by a particular factor at a time and it has its own way of behaving. Currently it moves on the fancies the traders have in relation to election prospects fluctuating its trend with the guess work on who becomes the next Prime Minister of India or which political party is able to secure a major most status in power sharing after the elections are over. Narendra Modi is the one who appears to be the strongest contender for the top post but the very graph on that count wavers at times between plus and minus. With this trend continuing, the safest course for the traders and investors is not to go for heavy buying of shares with the hope that it would fetch them multiple returns after the elections are over, they should rather dispose off the stocks they are keeping with them currently with an attempt to manoeuvre better profits based on current rates and wait for post election scenario for further investments.
Friday, 7 March 2014
Share market–if the current trend continues:
Tuesday, 28 January 2014
Share market moving into negative territories:
Alarming it is but true that share market in the country is passing through a crisis –crisis of uncertainty. Fluctuations are never a new thing in the share market but the way they are occurring these days are quite negative in their signals. When Raghuram Rajan took over as a new Governor of Reserve Bank the business community pinned their hopes that the situation would go for the better. Initially it did and a considerable check was put on alarmingly rising dollar against rupee but it didn’t last long and lately it is observed that the trend of dollar rising higher against rupee is again continuing unabated. The inter currency level in several other countries also is having an adverse trend. Many a share market experts had predicted for today that the market would have a positive movement with minus factors aside; it did not happen and Sensex ended in minus figure at -23.94 with Nifty closing at -9.60. Many a shares have suffered a great setback. Chances are that the market may go further adverse in days to come unless some miracle takes place to set the adverse trend suitably arrested.
Sunday, 23 June 2013
Share market heading to a doom!
So disparaging it is that the stock market plunged to a more than two years low day before and the trend remains unarrested with rupee getting down to its life time low at nearly 60 (59.93), and so is obviously the position in respect of gold and silver. In the year 1947 the Indian rupee valued as 1=1, rupee against dollar, and if a comparison is drawn on that basis, rupee stands no where against dollar as on date. What is more disgusting is the very trend of the market, it looks slated to go to a terribly low level resulting into a severe imbalance between export and import in India. The investors have already suffered a severe most setback excepting certain selected few. The trend is of course somewhat a global one but actually it is tug of war between the two economies –American and Indian. Such a competition between the two countries tends favourably towards America as against India. Only a few days back there was an announcement made by the Indian Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram, that there is no need to feel panicky on rupee falling down as there are already necessary decisions in the pipeline with the government to ensure its arrest. Nothing has happened tangibly, and the very scenario is shifting to much worse a position in days to come.
Wednesday, 1 August 2012
Ups and downs in the share market:
There is nothing new if there are ups and downs in the share market because it is, after all, the very characteristic of stock brokering, but when fluctuations are too high and the market goes awe fully volatile, the risk factor for the traders assumes graver proportions. In such a condition, only expert traders, with enough of dexterity at their command in the field, are able to survive leaving the rest swooning and collapsing. Current market conditions are as such only. Share market is always highly vulnerable to even slightest possible movement at national or international level, be it in the field of politics, governance, general markets or any events that occur in the country and equally abroad. If there are heavy rains, the share market is affected, if there are no rains, there are upheavals there, and if there are changes at the top level in the government, the share market goes awe fully awry. If it is famine or drought or some other calamity, this market is the first to become a victim. Only experienced traders are the ones who can successfully foresee these eventually and transact business proficiently. For the rest, they should have necessary patience to wait and watch for the favourable developments before they go for necessary purchase or sale of their stock.
Sunday, 19 October 2008
Virtually a chaos ?
The way stock market stands shattered now is virtually a chaos. Reduced to a level of destitutes there are thousands hankering for some support or the other. Sensex dragged down to a level below 10,000 sounds so devastating that investors both big and small find it just difficult to recover from the shock of damage. Although this is something that happened earlier too nearly a year and half back, this time it was too much of a dismay in the sense that it was a shock in deep sequence with running jolts one after the other giving them no gap to breathe. The masters monitoring Indian economy are not tired of boasting that it is all fully under control, inflation encouragingly shows a downward trend and so does oil market but then what are the factors that render all controls resultless. Is it really a sabotage as indicated by heads of several states including President of America? If so, how come they are unable to curb the manipulations? The very thought that the menace may aggravate further is highly terrifying and may virtually drag many an investors to the point of starvation. An investor calling on me was virtually in tears telling that his investment of 5 lakhs during last six months is reduced to merely 12% of its value, an instance that may apply to thousands of people.
Sunday, 9 March 2008
A deep dip downward in share market
Bear beating the bull, the share market looks all set to repeat what happened nearly a month back causing great setbacks to the share holders community. It happens. Nothing much uncommon in the scenario so obtaining. There are conflicting statements on the part of those whose words on the subject count much. Politicians, Ministry concerned, Experts and business magnates. What is visible on the surface is hardly in consonance with what is talked about. It looks at times like the current scenario took off after Reliance Power was floated. Those who floated it have an excellent reputation in the business world and the question is how come this venture of theirs flopped. To boost up the morale of their investers, they declared giving bonus shares which too could hardly do any thing to bring any improvement in the market. The set back is not confined to Reliance Power alone, it has taken into grips the stock market as a whole. Even others including State Bank who have the reputation of remaining stable have miserably suffered. The very enthusiasm of the investors stands badly crippled which situation emerged after people around 10 lakh in number showed so much of anxiety in this share that they had to open new Demat accounts with banks and various other agencies. This was the group who never had invested in shares in the past. Their enthusiasm bounced back to the extent of their total disappointment and todays position is that none of them is in a position to think of undertaking any risk at all. Possibly it is like all that glitters is not gold. Once bitten twice shy is the factor that is operating coupled with an otherwise international market scenario with the result that any sigh of relief in near future appears just utopian.
Thursday, 6 March 2008
Guess sellers in Share Market
Few decades back only share market was hardly that popular as it is today. Majority of people are in this business, they are businessmen, professionals, students or others. They are full timers and they are part timers but they are there in some form or the other. Much drumming done on the subject is that it is nothing like gambling like it used to be known earlier and that it is now very much a scientifically based rationale where systematic assessments and logical calculations work. Difficult to say how far it could be correct as till date there is no agency available to forecast the behaviour of share market in accurate terms. Whatever is there it is nothing more than a guess. It is a different matter that there are large number of persons who are making enough of money on forecasting the future behaviour of shares. Presently the market is miserably in a bad shape upsetting the investors regularly for the last several weeks. If the guess of the share pundits was to be taken as true, the present setback should not have been there. There is factually no fool proof a measuring rod to testify as to which type of scenario is in the offing for the market. Whatever the share pundits do is like what the shepherds used to do, and are still doing in remote areas, to forecast on rains. If they saw herds of ants coming out of their shelter holes running to safer places like trees, it was seen as a sign that the rains to occur and for that reason the ants movement was directed this way. Full of suspense, anxiety and tension, share trading has been and continues to be a matter of guess only.
Tuesday, 19 February 2008
Underhand tricks to grab money
There are many a systems adopted by different businessmen to earn money or say grab money from the people. Most common feature these days is to use share trading as a tool for the purpose particularly with reference to Initial Public Offer (IPO). Alluring advertisements attract the investors who consider it a better strategy to invest at the initial stage in IPO which is supposed to be moderately priced at the outset. IPOs may succeed after they are listed in the regular share market and they may flop too like it happened only recently in the case of Reliance Power much highlighted as a Powerful Reliance Power which in reality was nearly a miserable flop. Another was the one floated by EMAR which too failed getting practically no response from the investor as a result of which it had to be withdrawn. In both the cases there is no refund given to the investers. Reliance Power extended partial allotments as against the applications for a bigger number of shares. There is nothing much wrong in it as it all emerges through business constraints but how come they didn't refund the balance amount of investors as yet. EMAR did neither return the total money deposited by investors nor they thought it feasible to make necessary statement on that count. In both the cases, like there might be several others too, they are holding the huge amount of money deposited by investors earning millions of rupees as interest thereon out of which not a single naya paisa is allowed to go to those who gave them this amount. If there is any thing like business ethics, there can be no justification at all in withholding public's money like this to earning multiple benefits out of it. This is highly unjustified, this is blatantly unfair.