Share market –a dodgingly deceptive trend:

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Not necessary that if index goes higher it benefits every trader as it is the outcome of only certain selected shares going up with others either remaining stranded or losing margins in the lower directions. Two days before closure of the last week Sensex and Nifty both showed higher trends but the week ending with last Friday it closed at Sensex -339.90 and Nifty -100.60 with a heavy setback to majority of shares. The overall index moved more downward than upward with a touch of volatility giving no chance to even those who deal only in index. Political scenario in the country viewed with a closer look with the governmental mechanism concertedly concentrating on developmental activities, what is expected of the Indian share market is stable growth in its dealings which is blatantly lacking. Which miracle the share market is looking for to boost up its activities is a big question mark.

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Share market in a snail’s mode:

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It has been a typical behaviour of the Indian share market that moved up and down in most unpredictable a manner during the last week followed by an upward trend when the market opened yesterday. Overall it was a snail’s speed with which it worked. After Prime Minister Modi’s triumphant visit to America with his remarkable speech at the United Nations followed by his magical address at Madison Squire, New York, there were all expectations that the Indian share market would move higher with a plus factor but the traders got disappointed when the market closed on Monday with both Sensex and Nifty in a negative manner. Bulls did look slightly dashing at a certain point but it was just momentary as bears finally overpowered them assisted by snails. Experts still say that the market may soar in days to come after Modi returns to India but that is again nothing more than a mere guess and what tangibly occurs is to be seen and experienced only.

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Share market–a tilt of surging ahead but stagnant:

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Lack as it does for quite some time the share market has a tilt of surging ahead but is moving stagnantly with traders being at a fix on their transactions. Even as on date the index shows a higher trend but major part of shares are suffering from a decline indicating that the upward trend is confined to certain selected shares. This is time for the traders to deal in shares on a selected basis without acting as free stylers. The very likelihood appears to be for the market to go ahead upward in the near future but the chances of volatility in between can’t be ruled out.

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Share market–Index zooming upward but with a trend downward:

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Sensex crossed 26000 mark yesterday for the first time in its history with Nifty following it on the same pattern. Today morning the session started on an encouraging note and continued its momentum for first few hours but collapsed reaching -517.97 Sensex and -163.95 Nifty by the time it closed for the day. It was a record high of 26,123.55 points for the Sensex on Monday on expectations of a sound budget proposal of the Railways today after noon as a result of which the stocks of the companies related to railway sector continued surging much upward. The proposed measures like FDI in railways, increasing the number of trains and introduction of bullet trains were the attractive features for the traders and their enthusiasm was fully manifest on their deals on Monday but today it was totally a u-turn for the market and there was a sharp downfall early in the afternoon even before the rail budget was scheduled to be placed. If it was for the better prospects in stocks relating railway related shares the spree should have been continued equally today but it was not. This has made the scenario for the next few days more suspenseful coupled with general union budget due to be placed on 10th of this month.

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Share market–false predictions:

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There were some eye brows raised as from some of the readers when I pointed out certain salient features in relation to investment timings in my earlier post as per the link given below:

http://gallery-neelkanth.blogspot.in/2014/06/share-marketinvesting-in-uncertain-times.html

What I pointed out was in the context of experts advice to refrain from investing in shares at least till such time the proposed Union Budget was over. What could be visible even from a layman’s angle of approach is that with hard financial decisions as indicated from the governmental quarters from time to time there was every likelihood for the stock market to undergo an adverse impact of it but the experts in the field were supposed to read writing on the walls more dexterously. Both on last Tuesday and Wednesday the share market did well. Even on Thursday it did moderately well during the day before it slipped to minus zone at the end of the session with Nifty and Sensex closing at -10.35 and -17.46 respectively. Average performance for the day can’t be branded as negative if viewed in composite order. Budget session of the Parliament is just near and apparently there is no reason for the traders to feel panicky on that count. Whatever is to happen can be seen in tangible terms to determine the mode and terms of investment after budget proposals are placed on the floor of Parliament and till then traders and investors need not suffer from apprehensions spelt out on false predictions of course with usual precautions apart.

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Share market–investing in uncertain times:

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Indian share market closed at the end of its last week at Sensex 25,099.92 and Nifty 7,508.80 respectively registering plus factor at 0.15% and 0.21%, nothing like an encouraging performance. Overall the market ran on a drudgery note with element of volatility hovering all around and both bulls and bears looked to be in a posture of compromise. Market remained uncertain throughout the session. Experts opine that no investment is advisable in such a limping stage of the market, an advice not necessarily to be followed by the investors. In fact what is desirable is to go by the performance of the individual shares and not the market as a whole in its totality. Studying each share in its total depth with more emphasis on its performance in the past has to be the primary basis with the company’s balance sheet being treated as a primary factor without any chasing of the yellow scripts. Soaring prices aside, an investor has to keep an eye on developmental plans envisaged by the government with an amount of seriousness. These are some of the factors worth being adhered to by the investors; if yes, it is high time to go ahead with an investment to the extent one can afford.

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A share market steadily prone to higher goals:

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Many a stock market pundits were divided on its growth prospects even after Modi impact on it was visibly clear with number of them opining that it might take a longer time for the market to pick up the much wanted speed to fulfil the expectations of the traders. Quite visible on the surface as it is now, the  market is in its full gear in quite a settled manner set for an acceleration. Sensex and Nifty both closing at 376.95 and 109.30 points after already crossing the land mark of 25,000 as at the close of business today, there are enough of indications for a positive move. The trend of the market is well marked for its characteristic of moving quite steadily sans unbridled fluctuations which factor is denotative of a sound stability leaving bumper scope for a well organised trading with safe investments. Things remaining the same as they are obtaining now for which the chances are bright enough, there are hey days ahead for those who believe and practice healthy trading. Cares and cautions, however, are always necessary for the dealers in share market howsoever best it looks to have been settled.

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Is it that Modi impact has disappeared from the share market?

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After struggling much between marginal plus and minus yesterday the Indian share market closed at Nifty 11.65 and Sensex 6.58 points. Overall it was an awkward volatile movement without consistently settling any where. Right from the days Narendra Modi’s election campaign gained a momentum there was a deep impact of it on the stock market and it continued moving very much in a well settled manner without undue fluctuations but the trend reversed after Modi was declared elected as the Prime Minister of India. The trend was at its worst when he was sworn in along with his ministerial team. To some extent it could be attributed to a usual sort of imbalance in buying and selling of shares disproportionately but it looks surprising why the market failed to settle some where continuously for days together. It may well lead to the conclusion that Modi’s impact on the market dwindled badly for the reasons not quite explicit. If profit booking at a large scale was the reason it was not to last for days together say beyond a day or two. Possibly it was a chance for the share market  that coincided with Modi’s upper hand in elections and not any impact of his as such.

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What is it that determines stock market trends?

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Stock market is well known for its tendency to fluctuate abnormally the main reason of which is the factor of ‘self fulfilling’. I was reading Swaminathan S.Anklesaria Aiyer’s column in Times of India the other day where he elaborated the way the cycle of ‘self fulfilling’ acts. To quote him, it runs like this:

“If enough people think land and stock prices are going to rise and all of them start buying, the price of land stock will indeed shoot up. If all businessmen fear a recession and stop investing, that itself will cause a recession”.

Exactly this very cycle is called ‘self fulfilling’ and is in many ways responsible for large scale fluctuations not only in the stock market alone but equally the other markets where the theory of demand and supply plays a vital role. Now that the new government in India led by Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister is fully in the saddle and investors in the share market are jubilant with the thought that the index will continue rising much beyond where it stands on date tempting them to indulge in large scale buying but this very action definitely has the tendency to go in the reverse direction having a likelihood of recession taking place with a deep fall in the market as a whole. Better it is for the investors to keep this factor in their mind before trading.

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Share market sans volatility or over fluctuations:

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Fluctuations in any share market all over the world are the basic characteristic of it but when they go hyper there is a crash in the market constraining the traders to go berserk which in turn drags it to volatility for want of requisite transactions in the needed direction. It is after a long time that the market is behaving in a normal manner, of course as Modi impact, where it has neither over fluctuations nor is subjected to volatility –changes both upward and downward are normally in a predictable range restoring the much required normalcy with transactional performance being smooth and boundary bound. A trend like this speaks of stability in the deals which traders find quite feasible. The rupee dollar ratio which constantly dwindled downward earlier for a long time before it somewhat settled at 62-63 rupee ratio as against dollar is now in the range of 58-59 with a tilt to touch 57. Restrained fluctuations with a controlled volatility coupled with a normalised rupee-dollar ratio are all the indications of a well settled market movement getting followed by a sound stability. All taken together, the market scenario is all set to a sound proposition bestowing avenues to the traders for better transactional deals well settled and well meant. Thanks to Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister designate of the country, for restoring the much needed stability to the stock market.

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Share market–most suspenseful days ahead:

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Stock market in India is on its peak with a record high both in Nifty and Sensex. In a way it is a saturation, say experts. Fluctuations with rise and fall are characteristically an inbuilt feature of share market and for that reason when there is a rise after rise with hardly any fall it creates a great anxiety with bumper suspense in the minds of the traders and that is the situation obtaining currently. It is all an impact of Narendra Modi’s prospects to lead the next government of India as its Prime Minister as is till now an unshaken faith of the share market as a whole. All this, if studied in the context of BJP not forming the government at their own with Modi as the Prime Minister, leads to an apprehension that this would be a catastrophic disaster to the whole of the current scenario with a tremendous jolt to whatever stands as a great plus factor in the market as on date most likely to be followed by a severe setback with hardly recoverable a reversal. This is in fact the time when investors have to exercise their utmost constraint in their trading refraining from ventures most risky and uncertain.

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Share trading as a career:

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Full of risk it is no doubt but for many it is a career building channel. Those who are risk conscious very well have the option of dealing in plain equities as against several other areas which are otherwise full of hazards and liable to cause havoc emerging out of heavy fluctuations in the share market. Yet there are thousands of traders who are able to earn in a sumptuous measure much  more than normal salary earners but this is a field where upheavals of a massive order are a common feature. Within minutes one may grow to the status of a millionaire or may dwindle down to the level of a pauper. Only those who can afford investing big sums are the people who can earn well but others too can go ahead with smaller investments if they avoid areas of risk and trade only in shares within a set time frames regularly watching the mood of the market. Better it is always to go for a moderate trading without unnecessarily feeling over greedy in the matter.

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Share market–if the current trend continues:

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Rupee dollar ratio remaining within the reasonable confines of a workable range, the market is moving as at the moment in an encouraging direction with Sensex running at 340+ and Nifty at 100+. Showing a tendency of getting stagnated at certain levels, the index continues moving forward steadily. The political scenario as it is obtaining at the moment too is favourable to the market. May be this sign gets further accelerated with the dates of general election drawing closer. The share market is known for its own way of behaviour switching over to different modes of moves at its own mood and temper but what visibly appears on the surface is quite indicative of a healthy trend to suit the traders in all categories. Nothing is certain in any matter as to what is there in store for tomorrow but if the current wave is retained it is to indicate for sure most healthy a climate for the share market giving chance to the traders to have their heyday.

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Share market moving into negative territories:

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Alarming it is but true that share market in the country is passing through a crisis –crisis of uncertainty. Fluctuations are never a new thing in the share market but the way they are occurring these days are quite negative in their signals. When Raghuram Rajan took over as a new Governor of Reserve Bank the business community pinned their hopes that the situation would go for the better. Initially it did and a considerable check was put on alarmingly rising dollar against rupee but it didn’t last long and lately it is observed that the trend of dollar rising higher against rupee is again continuing unabated. The inter currency level in several other countries also is having an adverse trend. Many a share market experts had predicted for today that the market would have a positive movement with minus factors aside; it did not happen and Sensex ended in minus figure at -23.94 with Nifty closing at -9.60. Many a shares have suffered a great setback. Chances are that the market may go further adverse in days to come unless some miracle takes place to set the adverse trend suitably arrested.

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What’s it that really impacts the share market?

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That’s a big question as there is hardly any body or any forum to have the fool proof calculation on the mood of the share market. Something that holds good at the moment may just disappear and assume negative proportions. Inflation, developmental growth, soaring prices, change in incumbencies of top most importance at the top level in the country and even the weather are the known notable ingredients to determine the move of the market but there again the calculations flop in many of the instances. Share market pundits called Experts predict the move of the market in a free styled manner without being definite on what they themselves say. When Raghuram Rajan took over as the Governor of Reserve Bank of India, it was branded as a wave when he could manage to normalise Rupee/Dollar ratio initially but it was all short lived and it hardly took any time for the disbalance to resume with fluctuations. Modi wave was also branded as a factor to enhance the market speed but this again proved to be a momentary factor. There are calculations that if some stable government like presumably that of Narendra Modi’s comes to power in 2014 elections, the market performance would improve much but that is again a factor which just can’t be taken for sure. The fact remains that the share market in itself is a phenomenon with its own entity and just functions by taking chances without depending on any sort of extraneous factors.

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Sensex tumbles down miserably:

Share market of India suffered a severe setback in the last week with a record colossal jolt, the worst one during the last four years. Share market pundits say it may worsen further, some hold a view that it may improve the next week starting Monday the 19th of August. They derive their hopes from the other global markets. Despite regular assurances as from the Government of India, the Rupee ratio against US Dollar is at its bottom point and yet there is not even a remote indication in its improvement. Soaring prices know no end. In Banking industry, State Bank of India is the one hit worst. Individually speaking, there is an obvious reason in respect of it that the Bank has suffered a massive loss at a sequence on account of erratic policies on the part of its top management. If they are still unable to resort to necessary remedial measures, the losses in State Bank are sure to soar further resulting into their position in the stock market deteriorating more and more. Overall, the position of the banking industry is bad otherwise. This is an alarming position and it is better for the investors to be doubly cautious in their tradings.

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Rupee stumbled, regaining strength:

It looked like a few days back that the setback rupee has suffered in the market as against dollar is hardly recoverable. Now there appears to be some ray of hope in view of the favourable trend of the share market globally and rupee which was taken as doomed is now in a position to raise its head. Hopefully, if the slight jump that the market appears in a mood to take succeeds, the good days for rupee are ahead, and it is likely to give a boost up to the investors and also on the front of import export balance. Necessary note of precaution is, however, still a must for the investors in equities particularly, and also in the context of cash and commodities transactions.

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